Forecasting Tools

Tools to aid forecasters from the Sentinel team

Probability Aggregation

Enter probabilities (0-1) one per line to calculate various aggregation methods:

Laplace's Rule of Succession

Calculate probability using Laplace's rule based on past observations. For small numbers of future trials the naïve approach is fine, but for large number of future trials it becomes necessary to take into the account the decreasing probability in the conditionals where we don't observe new successes.

Date Calculations

Calculate days until future dates or days since past dates. Use YYYY/MM/DD format (e.g., 2024/12/25):

Beta Distribution Fitting

Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval. For example, to find a beta distribution whose 95% confidence interval is 0.2 to 0.8, input those values below:

Google Docs Combiner

Combine multiple Google Docs by their headers. Enter Google Docs URLs (one per line):